I love the direction you are going, and you are actually making an attempt to track the drops. It was a little tough to follow your numbers, but I think you are very close. My experience with P.H.A.T pants at best, like The Hustle, was around 40% (80% 2x).
But these new items alone, not counting the other items, the new items are SO BAD!!! 50% drop rate, or 100% drop rate with 2x drops. They should have NEVER increased the new items to 100, let alone have such a major obstacle course to acquire the supplemental items.
Papi, I hope you will change your mind and stick to it like me (for the most part we all are in the same boat), but I get you completely at your disgust over these major increases to craft just one equipable item.
O, and let us not forget either the continued increases in token costs (such a garbage system to continue increasing), diamond costs (as if anybody ever bought items with diamonds), LESS HELP from challenges, expedition, boss pit, and temples.
Anybody thinking it is only marginally worse has been misled. They will find out as time passes that fewer of their heroes are reaching max.